The National League looks as strong as ever, with as many as 12 of the 15 teams planning to contend in 2019.
The Cubs had a quiet winter, transactionally speaking, but almost every other team in the NL bolster their roster this offseason.
But expectations haven’t changed at the corner of Clark and Addison. After a disappointing finish to 2018, Kris Bryant and Co. once again have their sights set on another World Series.
With that, let’s take a look at all of the teams that could stand in the way of the Cubs getting back to the Fall Classic:
2018 record: 82-79, 4th in NL Central
Offseason additions: Lonnie Chisenhall, Erik Gonzalez, Melky Cabrera, Jordan Lyles, Francisco Liriano, Brandon Maurer, Tyler Lyons
Offseason departures: Ivan Nova, Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, Jordan Luplow, Tanner Anderson
X-factor: Chris Archer
Archer looms as one of the biggest X-factors in the entire division. He certainly has the potential to be one of the game’s true aces, but he’s over 30 now and has yet to actually live up to that potential.
He hasn’t finished with an ERA under 4.00 or WHIP under 1.20 since 2015 despite the fact that he’s averaged 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings in that span. Even a move to the NL wasn’t enough to boost Archer’s numbers, as his line was nearly identical in both Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh last season.
The Pirates gave up a ton to get Archer (intriguing young outfielder Austin Meadows and starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow), especially considering this is a franchise that does not have the money to fill holes on their roster in free agency. Archer needs to pitch like an ace (or at least like a No. 2) to match what the Pirates gave up for him and justify the team picking up his $9 million option this coming winter.
The good news for Archer is he’s had a full offseason with his new team to get acquainted and go about righting the ship. The bad news for him and the Pirates is they play in a stacked division that features four very, very good offenses.
The Pirates have plenty of good options to throw out on the mound every fifth day (just ask the Cubs, who struggled to score against anybody in a yellow and black uniform last year), but they really need Archer to step up and form a dynamic 1-2 punch with Jameson Taillon.
1. Adam Frazier – 2B
2. Starling Marte – CF
3. Corey Dickerson – LF
4. Jung Ho Kang – 3B
5. Josh Bell – 1B
6. Francisco Cervelli – C
7. Lonnie Chisenhall – RF
8. Erik Gonzalez – SS
1. Jameson Taillon
2. Trevor Williams
3. Joe Musgrove
4. Chris Archer
5. Jordan Lyles
The Pirates are giving Archer a little more time after offseason hernia surgery, which is why he’s projected for lower in the rotation. Taillon is my early pick for NL Cy Young after a breakout 2018 season. Williams and Musgrove both look like solid mid-rotation arms (Williams went 7-3 with a 1.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in the second half last year) and neither have turned 27 yet. Lyles has turned into a journeyman, but the Pirates also have top prospect Mitch Keller on the cusp and other arms like Liriano and Steven Brault as potential rotation fillers.
The bullpen is highly underrated, led by dominant closer Felipe Vazquez and guys like Richard Rodriguez and Kyle Crick, who are not household names but were very good last year (2.47 ERA and 2.39 ERA, respectively).
Then there’s Keone Kela, another pitcher the Pirates traded for ahead of the deadline last summer. The right-hander is about to turn 26 and saved 24 games in 25 chances with the Rangers last year before making the trek to Pittsburgh. He’s had a rough spring (3 homers, 7 hits allowed in 4 innings) but he could be one of the best setup men in the division and maybe even the entire NL.
The lineup is the big question mark with this Pirates team, especially with Gregory Polanco expected to miss the start of the season after offseason shoulder surgery. When he returns, he and Starling Marte still form a pretty solid outfield with Corey Dickerson.
The infield is suspect. Is this the year Josh Bell finally puts it all together? Jung Ho Kang has been solid when he’s able to suit up, but he’s had some bad off-field drama the last few years (plus that broken leg on the Chris Coghlan slide in 2015). Adam Frazier has shown some flashes, but that’s about it. Gonzalez has just 275 big-league plate appearances under his belt, during which time he’s posted only a .681 OPS.
It’ll be very interesting to see how often 26-year-old Colin Moran plays this year. The third baseman was the former 6th overall pick in 2013 (four spots after the Cubs selected Kris Bryant) but got his first true taste of MLB action last year after coming over from the Astros in the Gerrit Cole trade. The big issue with Moran is his complete inability to do anything against left-handed pitchers (.177 AVG, .503 OPS last year).
We know the Pirates will pitch well (especially against the Cubs) and they’re usually a very fundamental team in the field and on the basepaths. The question will be if they can score enough runs to be a serious contender in a really tough division. At the very least, this will be a pesky squad that will make life difficult on the rest of the league.
Prediction: 4th in NL Central
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